Dr Nick Dunstone

Met Office

Nick joined the Met Office Hadley Centre in 2008 after completing his PhD at the University of St. Andrews. He has worked on many areas of seasonal to decadal climate prediction research.

Most recently Nick has worked on seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which drives much of Northern European winter climate variability. The resulting Nature Geoscience paper led to him being awarded the 2017 World Meteorological Organisation’s Young Scientist Award.

Since 2014 Nick has led a small Climate Dynamics group at the Met Office which is currently focussed on examining the predictability, risk and dynamics of extreme climate events for Europe and SE Asia.

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High risk of unprecedented rainfall in the current climate

We present a novel methodology for assessing the current risk of extreme winter rainfall months over regions of England and Wales. This uses the latest high-resolution Met Office climate model simulations, providing over 100 times more climate simulations than we have available from observations. We calculate the risk of unprecedented extreme winter rainfall and show that we should fully expect new records to occur in the next few years.